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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 44

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 11-R.Dixon punts 27 yards to SEA 17, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-37-Q.Lake.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.59 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model