4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 22

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 74-J.Curhan and 78-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end to LA 13 for 9 yards (2-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.20 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model