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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 4

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 61-K.Fuller and 72-A.Lucas reported in as eligible. 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.32 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 4, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP