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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 19

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.08 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model