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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 27

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 8-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.13 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP