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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 72

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 17-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to BUF 28, Center-46-T.Addington. 20-N.Hines to BUF 34 for 6 yards (97-D.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model