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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🥶 Cold Spread 8.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NE
33.3%
BUF
66.7%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.133 vs Mac Jones (NE) -0.052 EPA/dropback
  • BUF offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 20
–
BUF 25
Projected margin: BUF by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

NE

Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Chest
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Shoulder
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Groin
Brenden Schooler S Questionable Hip
Jonnu Smith TE Questionable Concussion

BUF

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 23
–
BUF 35

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD BUF 6-N.Folk kicks 61 yards from NE 35 to BUF 4. 20-N.Hines for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 05:50 TD NE (5:50) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NE 6 – BUF 7
  • Q2 14:23 TD BUF (14:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 88-D.Knox for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – BUF 13
  • Q2 03:51 TD NE (3:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 1-D.Parker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – BUF 14
  • Q3 07:09 FG NE (7:09) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 17 – BUF 14
  • Q3 07:06 TD BUF 6-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to BUF -1. 20-N.Hines for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 17 – BUF 20
  • Q3 01:43 TD BUF (1:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 16-J.Brown for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 17 – BUF 27
  • Q4 11:43 TD NE (11:43) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 1-D.Parker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – BUF 28
  • Q4 08:59 TD BUF (8:59) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – BUF 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 17 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:17) 17-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to BUF 32, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 20 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:37) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to NE 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 26 for no gain (25-T.Jones).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:56) 17-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to BUF 28, Center-46-T.Addington. 20-N.Hines to BUF 34 for 6 yards (97-D.Mitchell).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 23%

    (9:28) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to NE 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 26 for 12 yards (69-R.Ferguson, 85-Q.Morris).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 50%

    (10:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry to BUF 37 for 5 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (7:09) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 37%

    (4:45) 17-M.Palardy punts 28 yards to BUF 19, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 65%

    (12:20) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers pushed ob at BUF 26 for 10 yards (27-T.White).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:34) 17-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to BUF 35, Center-46-T.Addington. 25-T.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-8-J.Bentley at BUF 35. Penalty on BUF-33-S.Neal, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 27%

    (3:37) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to NE 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 19 for 13 yards (41-R.Gilliam).