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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 14 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to NE 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 26 for 12 yards (69-R.Ferguson, 85-Q.Morris).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.20 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model