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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 81

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 17-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to BUF 32, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -3.22 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.63 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 81, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 38, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model