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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 42

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(10:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry to BUF 37 for 5 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.10 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model