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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 6

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP