Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 75

New England Patriots 23 – Buffalo Bills 35

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 17-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to BUF 35, Center-46-T.Addington. 25-T.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-8-J.Bentley at BUF 35. Penalty on BUF-33-S.Neal, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model