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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 35 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to NE 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 19 for 13 yards (41-R.Gilliam).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.71 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model