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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 13-B.Kern punts 38 yards to NYG 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.98 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP