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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 16:25 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 16.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NYG
35.7%
PHI
64.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.153 vs Davis Webb (NYG) -0.060 EPA/dropback (PHI starting Jalen Hurts in place of Gardner Minshew; NYG starting Davis Webb in place of Daniel Jones)
  • PHI defense: -0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
PHI 24
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

NYG

Azeez Ojulari LB Out Ankle
Leonard Williams DT Out Neck
Adoree' Jackson CB Doubtful Knee
Jon Feliciano C Questionable Back

PHI

Shaun Bradley LB Out Wrist
Lane Johnson T Out Groin
Avonte Maddox CB Out Toe
Janarius Robinson DE Out Ankle
Josh Sweat DE Out Neck
Jalen Hurts QB Questionable right Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 16
–
PHI 22

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:43 FG PHI (11:43) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. NYG 0 – PHI 3
  • Q1 04:20 TD PHI (4:20) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – PHI 9
  • Q2 10:27 FG PHI (10:27) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. NYG 0 – PHI 13
  • Q2 00:49 FG PHI (:49) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. NYG 0 – PHI 16
  • Q3 06:21 FG PHI (6:21) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. NYG 0 – PHI 19
  • Q3 00:53 FG NYG (:53) 9-G.Gano 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – PHI 19
  • Q4 10:10 TD NYG (10:10) (Shotgun) 12-D.Webb up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – PHI 19
  • Q4 03:24 FG PHI (3:24) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern. NYG 9 – PHI 22
  • Q4 01:43 TD NYG (1:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-D.Webb pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 15 – PHI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:37) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to PHI 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 35 for 14 yards (49-T.Fox).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (11:43) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:55) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to PHI 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-28-C.Flott.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (:06) (Field Goal formation) 6-J.Gillan sacked at PHI 40 for -11 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 21%

    (13:39) 13-B.Kern punts 38 yards to NYG 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-R.James.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:05) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to PHI 35, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey ran ob at NYG 49 for 16 yards (21-L.Collins). PENALTY on NYG-21-L.Collins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 49.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 66%

    (10:27) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to PHI 26, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-27-J.Pinnock.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:05) 6-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to PHI 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 61%

    (6:21) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (:53) 9-G.Gano 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (15:00) 13-B.Kern punts 29 yards to NYG 41, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-53-C.Elliss.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 25%

    (13:37) (Shotgun) 12-D.Webb pass short right to 83-L.Cager to PHI 49 for 1 yard (23-C.Gardner-Johnson).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (3:24) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 81%

    (2:00) 12-D.Webb up the middle to PHI 25 for 2 yards (97-J.Hargrave).