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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 67

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to PHI 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 35 for 14 yards (49-T.Fox).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.64 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP