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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.20 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP