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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 36

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.81 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP