4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 50

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Shotgun) 12-D.Webb pass short right to 83-L.Cager to PHI 49 for 1 yard (23-C.Gardner-Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.32 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model