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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 4

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.41 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP