Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(10:55) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to PHI 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-28-C.Flott.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model