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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 14

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 6-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.43 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 14, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model