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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2023-01-08 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

NYJ
39.0%
MIA
61.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYJ: Skylar Thompson (MIA) -0.286 vs Joe Flacco (NYJ) -0.084 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Skylar Thompson in place of Teddy Bridgewater; NYJ starting Joe Flacco in place of Mike White)
  • MIA offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 17
–
MIA 21
Projected margin: MIA by 4 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

NYJ

Duane Brown T Out Shoulder
Brandin Echols CB Out Quadricep
George Fant T Out Knee
Nate Herbig G Out Calf
Lamarcus Joyner S Out Hip
C.J. Uzomah TE Questionable Ankle
Ashtyn Davis S Questionable Ankle
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Questionable Knee
Mike White QB Questionable Rib
Jordan Whitehead S Questionable Hamstring

MIA

Tua Tagovailoa QB Out Concussion
Terron Armstead T Doubtful Toe, Pec, Knee, Hip
Kendall Lamm T Doubtful Ankle
Cedrick Wilson WR Doubtful Hip
Teddy Bridgewater QB Questionable Knee
Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Ankle
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Knee
Alec Ingold FB Questionable Thumb
Eric Rowe S Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 6
–
MIA 11

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 05:22 FG MIA (5:22) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NYJ 0 – MIA 3
  • Q2 01:38 FG NYJ (1:38) 6-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 3 – MIA 3
  • Q3 05:22 FG MIA (5:22) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NYJ 3 – MIA 6
  • Q4 12:03 FG NYJ (12:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 6 – MIA 6
  • Q4 00:23 FG MIA (:23) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NYJ 6 – MIA 9
  • Q4 00:05 SAF MIA (:05) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to NYJ 12 for -13 yards. Lateral to 19-J.Flacco to NYJ 9 for -3 yards. Lateral to 8-E.Moore to NYJ 5 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NYJ 5, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. NYJ 6 – MIA 11

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 42%

    (9:57) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete short right [52-J.Johnson].

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 47%

    (7:14) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to MIA 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (14:20) 7-B.Mann punts 61 yards to MIA 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:41) 4-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to NYJ 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 45 for 20 yards (44-B.Ferguson).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 61%

    (10:53) 6-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (5:22) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (1:38) 6-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:39) 7-B.Mann punts 57 yards to MIA 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 50%

    (9:03) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson right end pushed ob at NYJ 33 for 8 yards (22-T.Adams; 57-C.Mosley).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 16 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (5:22) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (12:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 47%

    (9:12) 4-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to NYJ 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 25%

    (6:37) 7-B.Mann punts 41 yards to MIA 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:59) 4-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to NYJ 19, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 28 for 9 yards (20-J.Bethel, 44-B.Ferguson).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:15) 7-B.Mann punts 42 yards to MIA 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 73%

    (:23) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.