Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 51

New York Jets 6 – Miami Dolphins 6

(6:37) 7-B.Mann punts 41 yards to MIA 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.06 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -2.32 EP

KICK -1.28 EP

25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
75% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model