Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 74

New York Jets 6 – Miami Dolphins 6

(3:15) 7-B.Mann punts 42 yards to MIA 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.57 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -3.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model