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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 4-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to NYJ 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 45 for 20 yards (44-B.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.40 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model