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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 37

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 6-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.07 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model