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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(9:53) (Shotgun) 65-P.Mekari reported in as eligible. 2-T.Huntley right tackle to CIN 26 for 2 yards (94-S.Hubbard, 95-Z.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.00 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model