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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2023-01-15 · 20:15 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🥶 Cold Spread 7.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

BAL
26.2%
CIN
73.8%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.156 vs Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.115 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Tyler Huntley in place of Anthony Brown)
  • CIN offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 19
–
CIN 27
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

BAL

Lamar Jackson QB Out Knee
Brandon Stephens CB Out Illness
Tylan Wallace WR Out Hamstring
Trystan Colon C Out Illness
Tyler Huntley QB Questionable right Shoulder

CIN

Alex Cappa G Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 17
–
CIN 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:26 FG CIN (8:26) 2-E.McPherson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. BAL 0 – CIN 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. BAL 0 – CIN 9
  • Q2 04:59 TD BAL (4:59) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 27-J.Dobbins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CIN 9
  • Q2 00:10 FG BAL (:10) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – CIN 9
  • Q3 05:05 TD CIN (5:05) 9-J.Burrow left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-93-C.Campbell, Defensive Offside, declined. BAL 10 – CIN 15
  • Q3 02:20 TD BAL (2:20) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep left to 10-D.Robinson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – CIN 17
  • Q4 11:54 TD CIN (11:54) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (55-L.Wilson; 57-G.Pratt). FUMBLES (55-L.Wilson), RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at CIN 2. 94-S.Hubbard for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 17 – CIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 91%

    (8:26) 2-E.McPherson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 82%

    (9:53) (Shotgun) 65-P.Mekari reported in as eligible. 2-T.Huntley right tackle to CIN 26 for 2 yards (94-S.Hubbard, 95-Z.Carter).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (:10) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:17) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:01) 4-D.Chrisman punts 49 yards to BAL 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 3-J.Proche.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:08) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 25 for 4 yards (43-J.Hill). FUMBLES (43-J.Hill), ball out of bounds at CIN 25.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 19 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:29) 4-D.Chrisman punts 53 yards to BAL 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-J.Proche to BAL 19 for 10 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 19 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (4:43) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 19 for 5 yards (26-G.Stone).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 11 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:25) 4-D.Chrisman punts 49 yards to BAL 33, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-J.Proche pushed ob at BAL 49 for 16 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither). PENALTY on CIN-23-D.Hill, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 64%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 77-D.Faalele and 65-P.Mekari reported in as eligible. 2-T.Huntley right tackle to CIN 33 for 4 yards (30-J.Bates).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 20 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.86 EP
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 84%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left (21-M.Hilton).