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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 4

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(:10) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 4, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model