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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 9

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model