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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 4-D.Chrisman punts 49 yards to BAL 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 3-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP