Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 74

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 25 for 4 yards (43-J.Hill). FUMBLES (43-J.Hill), ball out of bounds at CIN 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model