4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 19 for 5 yards (26-G.Stone).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.99 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model