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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 4-D.Chrisman punts 49 yards to BAL 33, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-J.Proche pushed ob at BAL 49 for 16 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither). PENALTY on CIN-23-D.Hill, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 82, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 40, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model