4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 21

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 2-E.McPherson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.31 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model