Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(14:47) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 35 for 10 yards (85-N.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model