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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Monday 2023-01-16 · 20:15 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

DAL
53.4%
TB
46.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22
–
TB 21
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

DAL

Trayvon Mullen CB Out Illness

TB

Nick Leverett G Doubtful Knee
Kyle Rudolph TE Doubtful Knee
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Shoulder
Mike Edwards S Questionable Hip
John Molchon G Questionable Ankle
Carl Nassib LB Questionable Pectoral
Keanu Neal S Questionable Hip
Logan Ryan S Questionable Knee
Donovan Smith T Questionable Foot
Robert Hainsey C Questionable Hamstring
Vita Vea DT Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 31
–
TB 14

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:34 TD DAL (6:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 86-D.Schultz for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – TB 0
  • Q2 06:18 TD DAL (6:18) 4-D.Prescott left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 12 – TB 0
  • Q2 00:34 TD DAL (:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-L.David]. DAL 18 – TB 0
  • Q3 10:11 TD DAL (10:11) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 13-M.Gallup for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DAL 24 – TB 0
  • Q3 00:05 TD TB (:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 6-J.Jones for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 24 – TB 6
  • Q4 10:18 TD DAL (10:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 30 – TB 6
  • Q4 02:09 TD TB (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 31 – TB 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:47) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 35 for 10 yards (85-N.Brown).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:47) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to DAL 22, Center-97-Z.Triner. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 29 for 7 yards (25-G.Bernard).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 15 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:32) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to TB 31, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 41 for 10 yards (89-P.Hendershot).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:07) 5-J.Camarda punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (6:18) 4-D.Prescott left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 26%

    (3:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to DAL 9, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to DAL 14, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 49 yards to DAL 22, Center-97-Z.Triner. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 22 for no gain (27-Z.McCollum).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 40%

    (3:17) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to TB 5, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by DAL-1-K.Joseph.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 93%

    (10:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (6:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle [99-C.Golston].

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:53) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TB 34, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 48 for 14 yards (87-J.Ferguson).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 6-J.Jones to DAL 8 for 5 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 70%

    (1:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 6-J.Jones.