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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 12

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to DAL 9, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 53, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP