Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 18

(14:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to DAL 14, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.18 EP
52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model