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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to DAL 22, Center-97-Z.Triner. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 29 for 7 yards (25-G.Bernard).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model