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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 18

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(10:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model