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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(6:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle [99-C.Golston].

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP