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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 86

Dallas Cowboys 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TB 34, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 48 for 14 yards (87-J.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.72 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 44, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model