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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 6-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.01 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP