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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to JAX 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 6-C.Claybrooks MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga at JAX 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.06 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 19, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP