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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Saturday 2023-01-14 · 20:15 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

LAC
38.8%
JAX
61.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.161 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.003 EPA/dropback
  • JAX offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
JAX 26
Projected margin: JAX by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

LAC

Mike Williams WR Questionable Back

JAX

Jamal Agnew WR Questionable Shoulder
Trevor Lawrence QB Questionable Toe
Ross Matiscik LS Questionable Back
Kendric Pryor WR Questionable Shoulder
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 30
–
JAX 31

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:40 TD LAC (13:40) 30-A.Ekeler right guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 05:33 FG LAC (5:33) 15-C.Dicker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 10 – JAX 0
  • Q1 00:49 TD LAC (:49) 30-A.Ekeler left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – JAX 0
  • Q2 07:17 TD LAC (7:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 23 – JAX 0
  • Q2 04:28 FG LAC (4:28) 15-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 27 – JAX 0
  • Q2 00:28 TD JAX (:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 17-E.Engram for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 27 – JAX 6
  • Q3 05:16 TD JAX (5:16) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 27 – JAX 13
  • Q3 03:02 FG LAC (3:02) 15-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 30 – JAX 14
  • Q3 00:50 TD JAX (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 7-Z.Jones for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 30 – JAX 20
  • Q4 05:30 TD JAX (5:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LAC-97-J.Bosa, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced between downs. LAC 30 – JAX 26
  • Q4 00:03 FG JAX (:03) 10-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on LAC-26-A.Samuel, Defensive Offside, declined. LAC 30 – JAX 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

    (10:11) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 23. 26-A.Samuel to LAC 39 for 16 yards (17-E.Engram).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (5:33) 15-C.Dicker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 32 yards to LAC 42, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-50-S.Quarterman.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 25%

    (3:10) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to JAX 14, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-94-C.Rumph.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to LAC 38, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:28) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to JAX 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 6-C.Claybrooks MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga at JAX 6.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (4:28) 15-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to LAC 18, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 23-B.Callahan.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:00) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to JAX 49, Center-47-J.Harris. 29-Te.Campbell to LAC 47 for 4 yards (94-C.Rumph).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 85%

    (:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 11-M.Jones to LAC 14 for 12 yards (32-A.Gilman).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%

    (12:35) 16-J.Scott punts 27 yards to JAX 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 11 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%

    (3:02) 15-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%

    (8:51) 15-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:21) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to JAX 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-47-J.Harris.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 54%

    (1:28) 1-T.Etienne right end to LAC 16 for 25 yards (49-D.Tranquill).