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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 15-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 5, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model