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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 16-J.Scott punts 27 yards to JAX 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.14 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP