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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 30 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 15-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.55 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP